Brent Crude at Resistance at $112. Indices Recover but DAX at Death Cross Status. USD Stronger but NFPs Today!

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex Trading on the DAX40, EURUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as educational, we are only observing current market conditions, and these are not to be considered as trading advice.

In our last video, we looked at the fall of the price of crude oil based on news from the White House, but we warned that this could change, for the usual reasons.

Yesterday’s speech from Donald Trump did more to confuse the markets than allay fears.

We always say, in times of huge geopolitical uncertainty like a war, the technicals take a back seat, but we always take support and resistance seriously, and the neckline in a double bottom is a key line of resistance.

The bottoms of the double bottom are higher lows, so we are getting a bullish vibe.

If price pulls back from this neckline, we will watch again for an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Many analysts feel that the price of oil is still too low based on the supply issues caused by the interference in the Strait of Hormuz.

You may ask about this overbought stochastic oscillator, and I will repeat that the war will override any technical signals, and you can see what happened to an overbought stochastic oscillator just last week.

In fact, we can see that MACD is actually more accurate in spotting bullish and bearish movements.

If we look at WTI, we see neither double bottoms nor inverse head and shoulders, but price has shot up again based on the Iran tensions.

But here is the bizarre thing: there is no spread.

In fact, WTI is now more expensive today.

But, you notice that the US Crude Oil inventories is actually way higher than predicted, which, normally, would have driven prices down.

But, look at the US Distillate Inventories and the US Gasoline Inventories that are much lower than expectations.

This means that more oil-based products are being exported from the US, driving demand and therefore price higher.

Regardless, any news about the Strait of Hormuz will determine the direction of both Brent and WTI.

After that last speech by Donald Trump, USD got stronger but all pairs are consolidating ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and the fact that many markets are closed today and Monday.

If the employment numbers are stronger than expected and inflation persists due to the energy crisis, the Fed will have to seriously look at raising interest rates, which will make USD even stronger.

OK, it has happened.

Despite yesterday’s rise in global equities, we have a possible Death Cross on the DAX.

However, the 200-day moving average is flat, so we will revisit this next week.

That’s all for now.

CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.