Crude Nearing Support | S&P Rallying

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on the S&P500, Gold, XAUUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDCAD, EURCAD, Brent and WTI Crude Oil.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as educational, we are only observing current market conditions, and these are not to be considered as trading advice.

Looking at the daily chart on Brent Crude, we see a clear bear run based on US-Iran war optimism and the fact that more oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The stochastic oscillator has been bearish for 22 days, indicating that sellers are in control, and MACD is clearly bearish.

On the 4-hour chart, we see a bit of volatility and consolidation based on military strikes from both sides.

We probably won’t see downward pressure until the market and oil companies are confident that the ceasefire holds.

Usually, the price of crude directly affects CAD, but we see mixed strength and weakness.

For example, we see a sudden burst of EUR strength against CAD and a very overbought stochastic oscillator which has already crossed over.

We see the opposite with CAD strength against NZD and AUD, and we are wondering if the downtrend will continue.

But take a look at the daily chart on AUDCAD.

The line of support we saw on the 4-hour chart is substantial, and we are, in fact, seeing a range trading opportunity here.

The stochastic oscillator is doing a good job picking tops and bottoms, but watch out for the news.

Later today we have Canadian GDP so we will look to see if the news drives price action against the trend to allow us to trade WITH the trend.

Also, if the price of WTI starts to fall again, we could see a weaker CAD.

Also, tomorrow we have the new US Fed Chair speaking in Portugal, so investors will want to gauge his mood regarding interest rates and quantitative easing.

Then we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls, arguably the biggest financial event of the month.

Lately we have seen USD strength, which, in some pairs, has been slowing down recently.

The daily chart on USDCHF shows a pullback in a clear uptrend, so we will see if the news forces price action to the lower trend line, where we see an oversold stochastic oscillator.

We see the corresponding situation with GBPUSD.

And in AUDUSD, where we see a falling wedge.

Another USD pair, gold, is still falling based on USD strength, but we see a key level of support just below.

We noticed last time that the NASDAQ and the S&P500 were lagging behind the Dow Jones.

And, how many times have we noticed that they usually try to catch up once investors see a bargain.

Well, both are rallying, with the S&P 500 breaking past the upper trend line.

The Non-Farm Payrolls may affect the indices, so will good or bad news out of Iran.

But keep in mind that this is a big holiday in the US, so markets may not be as volatile as we might want them.

That’s all for now.

CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.