Gold XAUUSD Ready for a Fall? 4 Things to Watch. WTI and Brent Fall on Peace Talks: Will it Last? NZD Interest Rate Decision in Focus.

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex Trading NZDUSD, AUDUSD, WTI, Brent Crude Oil, the NASDAQ, Silver, XAGUSD, and Gold, XAUUSD.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as educational, we are only observing current market conditions, and these are not to be considered as trading advice.

Most major markets were closed for a long weekend, but we saw movement in price action based on optimism out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding gold, we are considering that prices may fall soon, but let’s take a look.

Gold is paired with USD, so the idea that the Fed will not be lowering interest rates any time soon indicates a stronger longer-term USD and therefore a lower price of XAUUSD.

Secondly, US bond yields fell last week, but they are still relatively high, which may make them more attractive as a safe-haven investment.

Thirdly, whenever there is geopolitical calming, like peace talks in Iran, this tends to go against gold.

Of course, the war in Iran is completely unpredictable.

Fourthly, we are seeing a rising wedge in price action on gold, a gap that has not been filled, and a falling stochastic oscillator.

If we look at the daily chart, we see a rather impressive symmetrical pennant.

If price action breaks lower, we see key levels at $4,380 and $4,300.

Looking at silver, we see similar price action on the 4-hour chart.

And the daily chart.

Before we move on take a look at this bull candle from yesterday.

Why did this happen?

This is why: the idea of peace in Iran created an optimism that drove USD lower and the NASDAQ higher.

Increased enthusiasm in tech industries will always bolster silver, which is in high demand as an industrial metal.

So, we have a contradiction in silver as price action likes to follow gold but the fluctuations in AI and tech enthusiasm affect the real demand for silver.

Speaking of Iran, the price of crude has fallen based on the peace talks but we will have to see.

Even though trading crude oil right now depends on fundamental events, you will note that technical indicators like the stochastic oscillator can still pick tops and bottoms.

I just mentioned long-term USD strength but we can see short-term weakness which has boosted pairs like AUDUSD.

We see a price action gap, a rising wedge, and a falling stochastic oscillator.

In NZDUSD, we see an ascending triangle but more of a range trading opportunity during the last few days.

Again, we see the stochastic oscillator picking tops and bottoms.

But watch out for tomorrow’s Australian CPI, where analysts expect inflation to fall, and an interest rate decision and press conference from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

That’s all for now.

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