NFP Trading: How to Trade the US Non-Farm Payrolls | Gold XAUUSD & USD Outlook

Good day, Team GCI.

This week in the economic calendar, we have the most important event in the month - the US Non-Farm Payroll or NFP.

As a rehearsal we had the US GDP and Core PCE.

Let’s see how we traded it.

In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on the NASDAQ, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, XAUUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, EURUSD.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as observational and educational, and are not to be considered as trading advice.

You may have seen me talking about trading news events and I always go to some basic rules to follow.

Firstly, we trade news events AFTER the event, not before or during.

Trading before the event is gambling…you don’t know which way it will go.

As the figures are announced, the spreads may widen severely, making any trades unpredictable and you will not likely be able to enter the market where you want.

After the event is where you want to enter.

Second rule - always trade WITH the trend - so we are looking for news events to send price action AGAINST the trend so we can open a position WITH the trend.

As an example, before the US news yesterday, we looked at all USD pairs, including gold XAUUSD and we found uptrends, downtrends and ranging markets.

So, these days USD is getting stronger for many reasons and you can refer back to previous videos to see why.

For example, EURUSD is in a clear bearish run so we want to see any economic news drive price action AGAINST the trend so we can trade WITH the trend.

Yes, I have to repeat that concept as it is seriously important.

So, when the news hit, we need to be on a lower time frame and we can see what happened.

We only had a spike of around 20 pips but that is enough.

We monitored several pairs on several time frames and we waited for our ADX indicator to tell us when the move was exhausted, specifically the DI+ turning over from its peak.

Then, we see the stochastic oscillator turning over to the downside.

And, as more confirmation, we see that price action had risen to the upper trend line on longer time frames.

We had similar results on NZDUSD, AUDUSD and a long trade on USDCAD, all to follow USD getting stronger.

Today we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls, so, we again will look for price action on USD pairs to do exactly what it did yesterday.

Also, if we look at all the daily charts on USD pairs, we note that many are already at key levels so be careful.

In the theme of a stronger USD we are monitoring the upper trend line of the bear run on Gold so watch price and your favourite technical indicators, but don’t try to trade too close to the NFPs.

Looking at the US Indices, we see the NASDAQ again benefiting from renewed AI enthusiasm.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still falling based on high crude prices and the threat of higher interest rates.

That’s all for now.

CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.