NZDUSD Bearish Outlook: 4 Reasons to Watch | Fed Rate Decision, USD Strength & NASDAQ

As we can see from the EURUSD chart, and most other USD charts, we have dollar strength as tomorrow’s 25-basis-point interest rate rise has been baked in.

But that’s never the whole story.

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on the NASDAQ, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, NZDUSD, and EURUSD.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as observational and educational, and are not to be considered as trading advice.

If price action on EURUSD breaks below, we have support below at $1.15, $1.145 and around $1.135.

I know we like to look for countertrend moves after news events, but one of the strongest trending pairs right now is NZDUSD, which started falling in August.

The daily chart shows us just how strong the trend is, with this break of resistance and support well below.

So, notwithstanding USD strength, the latest RBNZ interest rate rise was still very much lower than the US interest rate, stifling NZD.

Thirdly, New Zealand is a net importer of energy, and the current problems in the Middle East are not helping NZD.

And, finally, the economy of New Zealand is not particularly strong at the moment, with Q2 growth slowing.

So, NZDUSD is one pair that we will keep an eye on, but watch for New Zealand GDP tomorrow.

Of course, we can’t talk about USD without looking at gold and silver, which both went bearish at the end of August.

Again, we are looking at support below current price action.

And please check the press conference after the news event.

These always move the markets, and we may see some extra volatility as the markets are still getting used to the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

And we will do it all again Thursday with the BoE interest rate decision, where they are expected to vote 6 to 3 to hold interest rates steady.

If this number is different, or the Monetary Policy Summary holds some surprises, we may see some opportunities.

Check all your GBP charts as, for example, we see a rising wedge on GBPAUD, so price could go either way during the news announcement.

And we see GBPUSD at a strong level of support but this will likely change after both news announcements.

Getting back to the US interest rate decision and the press conference, this will also likely affect the US indices and we see the NASDAQ in a descending triangle.

Higher interest rates almost always look bad on indices.

The NASDAQ is particularly vulnerable right now with uncertainty about tech stocks and the future of AI.

That’s all for now.

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