WTI and Brent Crude Falling on Iran Peace Deal: Will it Last? US Interest Rates and FOMC in Focus.

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on NZDJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as educational, we are only observing current market conditions, and these are not to be considered as trading advice.

As I always say, fundamental events alway triumph over technical analysis and we have a $3 gap in both WTI and Brent Crude.

The recent talks about a peace plan for the Iran conflict, and the possibility of opening the Strait of Hormuz, have seen prices falling and a WTI/Brent spread of only $3.

Technically, we see bearish indicators but be aware that the deal could fall apart at any moment to please manage your risk while trading.

If we move out to the daily charts, we can see price action from before the conflict so we have a long way to fall and bearish indicators here as well.

If you are a traditional gap trader, again, make sure you understand that this is a fundamental trade, not a technical trade.

This is an important factor for tomorrow’s FOMC statement as any lowering of the risk of inflation will have the Fed thinking twice about rasing rates.

Analysts are predicting no change for tomorrow, but the FOMC Press Conference almost always moves the markets.

We can see on USDCHF, and most other USD pairs, the fall in USD after the White House suspended attacks and the subsequent announcement of a peace deal.

This is a direct result of the alleviation of inflation fears based on the price of crude falling.

We see a pullback in the last several hours and bearish technicals, but again, keep an eye on the news all this week.

If we look at the daily chart on USDCHF, we see price action at a key level of resistance and many levels below, faithful to the Fibonacci retracements.

Again, mixed technicals.

We see the same USD weakness on EURUSD over the last few days, but with a clear bearish trend channel from April.

Price action is at the upper trend line, with the stochastic oscillator looking like it will turn over.

Here, as well, we see several key levels, including today’s on Fibonacci retracements.

As we saw from the calendar, the BoJ have finally raised its interest rates, and we saw JPY strength against every other currency except USD.

USDJPY is at a key psychological level of 160, and the market is waiting on many other factors like bond yield differentials and more info from the BoJ.

We will be watching for a retracement if price action does not break lower like this bullish trend on GBPJPY.

We get a hint of a rising wedge, which can be a bearish pattern, but in the meantime, we see an oversold stochastic oscillator which looks like it might turn up.

Another JPY pair to watch is NZDJPY, where we have an uptrend, an oversold stochastic oscillator, and a GDP announcement tomorrow.

That’s all for now.

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