Are We In a Bear Market on NASDAQ and S&P500? 4 Reasons Why We Are Not…Yet! Forex Trading AUD Weakness.

In today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex Trading on Brent Crude Oil, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, the DAX40, the NASDAQ, and the S&P500.

Just a reminder that these videos are intended as educational, we are only observing current market conditions, and these are not to be considered as trading advice.

With a quick look at the US indices like the NASDAQ and the S&P500, we see price action below the 200-day simple moving average.

Does this mean a bear market? Not just yet.

Firstly, analysts like to see a few days of price action below the SMA.

Yesterday, the value of the indices shot up based on news of ceasefire talks regarding Iran, but that was short-lived and values fell again.

Secondly, we like to see a significant fall in value, and we are now roughly 1.5 to 2% lower, which is on the edge, to be honest.

Thirdly, the 200-day SMA is still pointing higher and, if it starts to level off or fall, we will be concerned.

And, fourthly, investors, traders, analysts and funds will be watching the 50-day SMA because, when this crosses below the 200-day, we call this a Death Cross.

That’s as bad as it sounds.

The German DAX, on the other hand, is about 7% below the 200-day Simple Moving Average, which is starting to turn down.

And, we see 14 candles closing below the 200-day, with the 50-day getting ready to pounce.

We see AUD falling right across the board, but keep an eye on your technicals.

Price action on AUDUSD is forming a descending triangle, and technicals look bearish.

AUDJPY has a similar-looking MACD, but we may be seeing a falling wedge forming, which is a bullish pattern.

When we see such a speedy, dramatic change in AUDNZD, we take notice and price action has broken through the lower trend line.

We are getting contradictory information from our technicals, and I would encourage you to check other time frames on this pair.

And watch for important Australian CPI news tomorrow.

What can we say about Brent Crude Oil?

Prices have bounced around, just like we mentioned earlier on the US indices, with contradictory information coming out of Washington and Iran.

All we can do now is wait for more news…better or worse.

That’s all for now.

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